On January 2, 2017, United States President-elect Donald Trump once again position on major issues of international security through social networks, and a day after North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-UN on North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile's comments responded vaguely said that "this will not happen." The other hand, Trump also accused China of failing to help North Korea United States busy, implied or to put pressure on China on North Korea. Trump's series of comments thrown since he took office about United States policy toward North Korea to speculation.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 3 Trump about North Korea and China are two tweets, respond to comments, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said China sticks to achieve denuclearization on the peninsula, insist on maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula, resolve the problem through dialogue and negotiations. China's efforts to that end are obvious to all. China hopes that all parties to refrain from words and deeds that led to the escalation of tensions and jointly promote the Korean peninsula nuclear issue back to the track of dialogue and negotiations as soon as possible.
North Korea's missile tests in the coming months more likely
"North Korea claims to have to develop to be able to reach the United States in parts of the final stage of nuclear weapons. That will not happen! "The United States local time on January 2, 2017, United States President-elect Donald Trump in his social networking site" Twitter "said.
A day after, North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-UN made it on TV new year's message, in his speech, Kim said North Korea "intercontinental ballistic missile test-launch preparations at an advanced stage".
Kim's comments triggered United States Government reacted strongly, United States State Department spokesman Anna·liqiailun January 1 North Korea "to refrain from provocative actions and inflammatory rhetoric to threats to international peace and stability. "
While the United States also responded to a statement by the Pentagon, warned North Korea against taking aggressive action, means that any illegal action will result in consequences. Pentagon also reiterated in a statement using United States all-round great deterrent force to defend the ally's "firm determination".
"This threat is very real and is on the rise," United States senior fellow at the conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation bulusi·kelinge (Bruce Klinger) on CNN, said, it's easy to laugh at the DPRK is a "funny little country", but "North Korea to the United States and its allies, and international peace and security is a multiple threat. "
United States Center for strategic and international studies Senior Adviser weikeduo·Cha (Victor Cha) said North Korea was the United States directly threatened. He thinks North Korea to the United States and the threat of China and Russia are not the same, "with China and Russia, we are a deterrent to each other," weikeduo·Cha said, "for North Korea, you don't know what this guy is doing. "
Kim Jong UN, mentioned in his speech at the new year's intercontinental missile program, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on January 1, found that, North Korea is likely in the near future is expected to be against United States indigenous long-range missile. Yonhap said, has yet to find signs of North Korea's imminent test-firing of missiles, but June Han, like last year, remain on high alert. Korea Defense Minister Han Min-seeking 2nd new year meeting with the media, said the United States after the new Government was established on 20th and South Korea will fight for ROK-US Defense Ministers talks as soon as possible, ways to strengthen the Alliance's programme of cooperation and other related matters.
Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for global policy researcher Zhao Tong surging journal (www.thepaper.CN) interview agreed that North Korea's missile tests in the coming months more likely. "North Korea's development of nuclear deterrence, the ultimate goal is to be able to United States domestic nuclear counterattack, so it decided to make its nuclear deterrent appear to work, North Korea must show it is actually available to the world intercontinental missile capability. "
"If North Korea with the United States and the native ability to retaliate in military conflicts in the United States is also involved in North-South military conflict too tough," said Zhao Tong, because North Korea could threaten the United States domestic retaliation, United States support for the allies force and credibility will be declined.
Trump tried to put pressure on China's settlement of the Korean question
Trump campaign has made many statements on North Korea, he said he would sit down to negotiate with Kim Jong-UN, but he has said Kim Jong UN was "crazy". Trump announced Kim Jong-UN, 2nd missile plan responded by saying, "this will not happen", which means a vague statement led many experts to Trump North Korea policy speculation and interpretation.
"Theoretically there are two ways to read, first, Trump does not believe North Korea had good technology can successfully test-fired, but the more likely explanation is that he said United States would not let it happen," Qinghua·kaneiji researcher at the Center for global policy analysis of Zhao Tong said.
Zhao Tong stressed that the latter may be particularly worrisome, because Trump a lack of experienced and careful enough, he is likely to command American troops on an impulse launch vehicles and other facilities on North Korea carried out a pre-emptive strike, or to intercept the North Korean missile. "These are all relatively excessive reaction, can cause unpredictable results," said Zhao Tong.
However, Zhao Tong said, Trump may also be taken against North Korea "carrot and stick" policy of carrot and stick, on the one hand means that you can contact with Kim Jong-UN, but at the same time strengthening the military and economic pressure on North Korea.
CNN reported on January 3, found that, for North Korea, Trump has four options. One is to put pressure on China, and the other is to tighten sanctions, military action in third, four are negotiating with North Korea.
On January 2 after Trump responded to Kim's missile plan, followed by another "tweets" to blame China, said China is not helping North Korea United States busy. "In a one-sided trade in China from the United States won a lot of money and wealth, but not on the issue of North Korea's help. "Trump tweets last implied dissatisfaction to say" good! "
Zhao Tong thought it clearly reflected the style of Trump likes to do transactions, "forced the Sino-US bilateral trade issues linked to security issues on the Korean peninsula, this style is more speculative traders. "Trump once said he was on the campaign trail by putting pressure on China to achieve the objective of the settlement of the Korean question, but Zhao Tong said trump this threat is not real.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 3 Trump about North Korea and China respond to a Tweet or two, also stressed that Sino-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial and win-win in nature, it has been proven by facts. For problems in the Sino-US economic and trade relations, the two sides should be based on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit and find an appropriate solution. China and America should work together to maintain the healthy and stable development of bilateral economic and trade relations, in line with the interests of both sides. Chengdu haze total emissions is huge steady state
North Korea at the US side responded to decide where to go next
Worth noting is that Kim Jong UN, said this will be the first intercontinental missile test comes as United States Government handover amid from Trump the White House less than three weeks, on the other hand Korea political scandal is now in disarray due to Park close to politics, CNN says that this node is a "very fragile."
Zhao Tong believes that Kim announced plans to test at this time may be the desire to trump the "ventilate", was prepared by Trump, if the United States negotiated with North Korea as soon as possible, may be better. "Trump's policy is unclear, while North Korea has waited more than two months, North Korea wants the Trump position as soon as possible, and incoming United States President to ease with the opportunity to talk. "
Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported on January 1 that "Kim Jong-UN's new year message this year appeared to be aimed at creating United States led so far to the international community on the effect of sanctions, there is no impression, strive to make United States changes to strengthen the new Government put pressure on the road. "
Kyodo News Agency said, the Obama administration has been implementing only North Korea abandon its nuclear program in order to dialogue, us-North Korea negotiations stalled for a long time. North Korea considered to trump the Government came to power as an opportunity to seek to break the deadlock, after the Trump is elected the next President, has avoided the obvious military provocation. Kyodo News Agency said, North Korea will try to see the United States Government's policy toward North Korea, including responses to this new year message, the United States, consider carefully whether firing missiles.
North Korea has been growing steadily the past few years to advance its nuclear and missile programs. 2016 North Korea conducted two nuclear tests: in January it announced the success of the first hydrogen bomb test, September 5th nuclear test, which is North Korea's nuclear tests since 2006, one of the largest. According to a CNN report, North Korea was estimated to be 16 to 20 nuclear weapons, and is steadily moving towards miniaturization, and North Korea also increased the range and accuracy of its missiles to carry nuclear weapons.
CNN, citing unnamed experts said North Korea may already have equipped with the "Reed" medium-range ballistic missile warheads, and it's going to Korea and Japan pose a threat throughout. According to a CNN report, North Korea's medium-range missiles "musudan" range as far as United States one of the most important military base of Guam in the Western Pacific, but it is unclear whether North Korea has the ability to carry nuclear warheads to "musudan".
Landezhi bulusi·bannite, senior defense analyst (Bruce Bennett) on CNN said that although North Korea has an obvious progress in nuclear warheads, but its missile technology was not enough to carry nuclear warheads.
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