Last week, in the face of continued sluggish domestic economy, the Government launched a series of intensive fiscal stimulus measures. From cars to real estate markets, and then to the railway infrastructure, "Chinese stimulus" reappearance.
Chinese economic data remain weak
Railway freight volume
The first eight months of this year, China's railway freight traffic dropped more than 10% per cent, last July decline. This was included in the "keqiang index" red light indicator is lit again China's sluggish economic growth.
National development and Reform Commission announced in January-August, rail freight volume of 2.26 billion tons, down 10.9%. August national rail freight volume 280 million tons, down by 15.3%.
Rail freight volume was economic "barometer", which can directly increase or decrease social mobility of goods, reflecting the degree of prosperity of the national economy. Article had previously described an account of Wall Street, "keqiang index" sources in 2007, Li keqiang, Party Secretary of Liaoning province's current Premier. At that time he believed that electricity consumption, rail freight and the loan is really understand indicators of the economic situation.
Industrial companies ' profits
In addition, the Bureau of statistics in August, profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size-8.8% drop 5.9% larger than in July. Data compiled by Bloomberg show, the Chinese Government began in October 2011, the biggest drop since monthly data published. In January-August, profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size-1.9% value-1% before, drop 0.9% larger than 1 July.
In fact, the growth of China's economy depend on the second half of 7%, an economist skeptical. Economists say slowing as recession and manufacturing overcapacity, investment, China will further decline in economic growth target next year.
Deng Minqiang Goldman Sachs said in a research note, the current risk significant monetary easing would not be implemented in the near future, policy support may rely more on financial instruments. Deng Minqiang also said that under the current economic environment, further rate cuts may increase the burden on the Government to curb the capital outflow. Taking into account the level of local government finance and dynamic bottlenecks, broaden the scope of the Government's fiscal stimulus, directly promoting infrastructure investment.
Economic information daily noted that, taking into account the policy work also needs to be a process to ensure 7% of the year growth expectations, has not much time left. Within the next 3 months, investment in stability, wide currency and promote exports and real estate and other fields, at least more than 10 steady growth policy is worth looking forward to. In terms of monetary policy, it can still look forward to again cut interest rates drop or drop maybe more than once.
Property, automobile market, infrastructure-intensive stimulus measures
This week, the Government concentrated on the property market, the automobile market and infrastructure has launched a series of stimulus measures.
Low car purchase taxes in half
China's State Council said on Tuesday that measures to support new energy and the development of small cars, on the purchase of 1.6 liters or less passenger preferential policies for implementation of a vehicle purchase tax in half. This measure is part of understanding to stimulate weak demand and a slowing economy.
Halve the vehicle purchase tax preferential policies will be implemented during the period of October 1 to December 31, 2016. 30th report, according to China International Capital Corp, Feng wei, analyst, tax cuts are the equivalent of 15 months for the automotive industry under the State Council tax reduction of 72 billion yuan.
Estimated halved the sales tax means that consumers can enjoy the preferential price of 3,000 to 8,000 yuan, for less than 100,000 yuan high price sensitivity of consumers, is more favorable policies. In accordance with the provisions of the interim regulations on the tax on vehicle purchases, levied when the vehicle purchase tax, 17% VAT should be removed, and then press 10% tax levy of vehicle purchase tax, totaling about car price 8.5%. According to this formula: = car acquisition tax/(1+17%) x purchase tax (10%).
Accordingly, if you spend 100,000 yuan to buy a 1.6 liters or less for small cars, 8547 before October 1 to pay purchase tax. From October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016, the purchase of 1.6 liters or less passenger vehicle purchase tax implemented in half, you only need to pay 4273.5 Yuan.
National Federation Secretary General Cui Dongshu said in an interview with Sina, policy issue is the State of the stock and property markets after the stimulus, continuation of the new round of economic stimulus. Choice of 1.6 liters or less cars from the State analysis on the intentions, this part of the displacement range models scale at around 13 million units in annual sales, if only to pull 10% consumption, means that hundreds of millions of consumer demand is released.
Non-purchase of city's first down-payment adjustment
Yesterday, Bank of China and China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice, in the implementation of "restriction" measures of urban, household commercial housing loans to individuals to buy homes for the first time, the minimum down-payment ratio is not less than 25%.
The notice also said the Agency of the people's Bank, China Banking Regulatory Commission shall be in accordance with the "classification guidance, due to the effects of policy" principle, according to the different cities within its jurisdiction, guide market interest rate pricing discipline mechanism at the provincial level, combined with the situation on the ground, determined within its jurisdiction the minimum down-payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans.
The same day, the Ministry of housing, finance and the Central Bank will effectively improve the efficiency of the housing Provident Fund said, raise real credit districts to coordinate the use of the city funds, expand the loan financing channels, the full implementation of different loan business.
Ministry of housing, Ministry of finance, the Bank will inform the major contents include:
First, the actual loan amount. Late August 2015 housing Provident Fund funds rate lower than the 85% district of the city, to consider the level of prices, demand for loans and the borrowers ' repayment capacity, improve housing provident fund housing loans to individuals actual lines. Under the premise of guaranteeing the basic living expenses of the borrower, monthly payment and the monthly income limit under 50%-60%. Loan repayment can be extended to 5 years after the legal retirement age of the borrower, for a maximum period of 30 years. Rush of pushing a monthly transfer of housing Provident Fund loan business.
Two city districts to co-ordinate the use of funds. Same District Housing Fund Management Center and Center should be uniform extraction of housing accumulation Fund and lending policies, and use of loan funds. Housing Fund Management Center or center when the loan funds, paid workers should be allowed to get loans from local housing Provident Fund management institutions.
Third, expand the loan financing channels. Conditions of urban housing provident fund housing loans to individuals to actively promote asset-backed securitization business, inventory of housing accumulation Fund loan assets.
Four, and implementing the different loan business. Paid employee outside the paid area home buyers, according to housing policy housing provident fund housing loans to individuals to purchase housing Provident Fund management centres for individual housing loans. Deposit and purchase housing Provident Fund management centres should cooperate, confirmation of deposit certificates and other material issued in a timely manner, process a loan. The specific measures shall be formulated separately by the Ministry of housing and urban-rural.
Five elements, simplifying business approval. Paid workers applied for housing provident fund housing loans to individuals, agreed in accordance with my monthly payment amount calculated its monthly income of housing accumulation Fund, without proof of income. Paid staff rental housing application for extracting the housing accumulation Fund, apart from the identity, and the spouse without certificates, without providing proof.
This year, due to the downward pressure, senior real estate policy loosening, have as much relaxation of the Provident Fund housing policy. First choice of XI Jinping visit Seattle highlights
On August 31, the Ministry of housing, Ministry of finance and the people's Bank of China issued a circular saying, from September 1, owns a home and has closed out the housing loan, CPF Minimum down-payment to 20%. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can be combined with local conditions, decide to apply for housing accumulation Fund loan to purchase the minimum down payments for second homes.
On September 11, two sets of Fund Management Center in Beijing announced the relaxation of Provident Fund loans policy, effective September 14, Beijing will have 1 housing and settlement housing fund personal loans (including housing policy interest loans) loan applicants to buy second homes, loans for second homes, the minimum down-payment ratio decreased from 30% to 20%. Earlier, before the end of May, Beijing will fund the first set from the housing loan amount adjusted to 1.2 million Yuan.
Tianjin announced on May 23 that personal housing accumulation Fund loan policy adjustments, will be cut down-payment to no less than the purchase price of 20%, staff apply the maximum unification of Provident Fund loans raised to 600,000 yuan.
Nanjing and Sichuan in April have a provident fund housing loans also reduced the minimum down payment to 20%.
Railway pioneer is the steady growth of
National development and Reform Commission has announced three new railway projects approved this week: the new Wuhan xiangfan to Shiyan city railway project, new between Xuzhou and Huaian-Yancheng railway projects and long yellow rail new xuyong to bijie project total investment of 109.335 billion yuan.
According to UBS estimates, total railway investment in China this year is likely to exceed peak in 2010, a record, and average annual investment in the next five years will remain high in the 850 billion yuan.
In 2014, the Chinese Government will double to 800 billion yuan railway investment, Premier Li keqiang's goal is to invest at least 800 billion yuan this year, but not capped. In previous years, railway construction points out that often when accelerating in the second half.
Bloomberg argued that, for the Chinese Government, increase the costs of railways is "two birds with one stone" measures can not only boost the economy in the short term, can also increase the efficiency for a long time.
Deng Minqiang Goldman Sachs said in a research note, the current risk significant monetary easing would not be implemented in the near future, policy support may rely more on financial instruments.
Although now not able or willing, as in 2009, China 4 trillion program launched, but infrastructure is still steady growth of Government "weapon", which is undoubtedly one of the most important means of railway construction.
According to Bloomberg, UBS Economist Robin Xu said: "China has a large number of network-building needs, the Government will invest to steady growth ahead of schedule. "
Now the Chinese Government not only increase the railway investment in China, but throughout the world as "selling" high-speed rail in China.
Since Premier Li keqiang took office, during his visit to Thailand, and Romania, Ethiopia and the United Kingdom and the United States and other countries selling high-speed rail in China many times, and won "best salesmen in China", "irongut" in the world.
Last week, the Chinese President during a visit to the United States, but also with the United States signed a high-speed rail agreement, China's high-speed railway will be the first exports to the United States. The high-speed train from Las Vegas, Nevada to California victory Valley and Palmer Dyer, and eventually to Los Angeles, 370 km in length. Expected project began at the end of September 2016, a duration of about three years.
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